As Chirag Paswan Seeks to Become NDA Fulcrum in Bihar

The son of the late Ram Vilas Paswan, a towering figure in Bihar politics and a respected Union minister, Chirag has inherited a legacy that is both a powerful asset and a daunting challenge. As he seeks to consolidate his position as the fulcrum of the NDA in Bihar, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — the dominant partner in the alliance — is watching his every move with cautious calculation.

This dynamic raises important questions about the evolving power equations within the NDA in Bihar, Chirag’s political aspirations and strategies, and the BJP’s apprehensions in accommodating or countering his ambitions. This article delves into these aspects to understand why BJP’s caution is palpable amid Chirag Paswan’s assertiveness.

Chirag Paswan: A Political Scion Carving His Space

Chirag Paswan, scion of the influential Paswan family, has been trying to step out of his father’s shadow since Ram Vilas Paswan’s demise in 2020. Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) was traditionally a significant ally of the BJP-led NDA, bringing with it a loyal Dalit voter base and strong grassroots connections in Bihar. However, Chirag's leadership has faced multiple tests, from internal party dissent to electoral setbacks.

Despite the hurdles, Chirag remains ambitious and has been actively rebranding himself as a youth-centric, progressive leader aiming to take the LJP beyond its erstwhile limitations. His vocal critiques against some NDA allies and occasional deviations from the alliance’s line indicate his intent to assert a stronger, more independent presence.

The 2020 Bihar Assembly elections were a watershed moment. Chirag Paswan’s LJP contested separately, aggressively targeting the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) but also inadvertently affecting the NDA’s vote share, especially the BJP’s, in many constituencies. The move revealed Chirag’s willingness to stake out his own political space, even if it meant friction with the BJP.

The BJP’s Strategic Dominance in Bihar

Bihar politics has long been shaped by caste equations and alliances. The BJP, since emerging as a major force in the state, has crafted a broad coalition, riding on support from upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs, and some Dalit groups. Its alliance with the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, has been the backbone of the NDA in Bihar.

Within this framework, the BJP has strategically positioned itself as the core power center, balancing relations with partners to maximize its electoral advantage. The alliance has been largely stable but punctuated by occasional strains, as seen in Nitish Kumar’s brief exit from NDA in 2013 and the 2020 alliance reconfiguration.

Chirag’s rise as a possible NDA fulcrum threatens to recalibrate this balance. The BJP is cautious because while Chirag can potentially consolidate a significant Dalit vote bank, his independent streak and recent political experiments create uncertainty for the BJP’s strategic calculations.

Why BJP Watches Chirag Paswan With Caution

1. Unpredictability and Assertiveness:
   Chirag Paswan’s recent political choices have signaled a leader willing to challenge his allies openly. His LJP’s separate contestation in 2020 cost the BJP several seats. Though Chirag returned to the NDA fold later, the BJP remains wary of his potential to disrupt alliance unity.

2. Dalit Vote Consolidation:
   The BJP relies heavily on a broad coalition that includes sections of Dalit voters, but Chirag commands a loyal Paswan Dalit base, which is crucial in Bihar’s caste arithmetic. If Chirag consolidates this segment independently, it could either be a boon or a bane for the NDA, depending on how BJP manages the relationship.

3. Electoral Math and Seat Sharing:
   As Chirag seeks a bigger role in the alliance, demands for more seats or greater say in candidate selection are inevitable. The BJP, keen to protect its electoral strongholds, might be reluctant to concede too much, creating friction within the NDA.

4. Leadership Dynamics with Nitish Kumar:
   Nitish Kumar, as the senior NDA partner and chief minister, has been the dominant face in Bihar politics for over a decade. Chirag’s attempt to become an alternative NDA fulcrum may unsettle the existing hierarchy. The BJP must delicately manage the relations between Nitish and Chirag to maintain alliance cohesion.

5. Legacy vs. Performance:
   Ram Vilas Paswan was a unifying and experienced leader with strong central government ties. Chirag, still building his credibility, has yet to prove his long-term electoral viability and alliance management skills. BJP’s caution stems from this uncertainty about Chirag’s political durability.

Chirag’s Strategies to Become the NDA Fulcrum

• Building a Broader Dalit Coalition:
  Chirag aims to go beyond the traditional Paswan vote bank to unite various Dalit sub-castes, making the LJP indispensable in the NDA’s Bihar strategy.

• Projecting a Youthful, Progressive Image:
  He is positioning himself as a young leader advocating employment, education, and social justice, appealing to younger voters and urban Dalits.

• Leveraging Central Connections:
  Despite recent ups and downs, Chirag is actively engaging with the BJP’s central leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, to secure a more significant role.

• Maintaining Political Visibility Through Public Campaigns:
  Chirag has been vocal on national issues and Bihar-specific concerns, ensuring he stays in the public eye and is perceived as a leader with a distinct voice.

BJP’s Calculated Response

The BJP’s caution does not mean rejection but a careful balancing act. The party:

• Engages Chirag Without Over-Conceding:
  BJP leadership has kept channels open with Chirag, allowing him space while ensuring that LJP remains a junior partner in the NDA.

• Supports Nitish Kumar’s Leadership:
  The BJP continues to back Nitish Kumar’s chief ministership as the alliance’s anchor, signaling that any elevation for Chirag will be within this framework.

• Monitors Ground Realities:
  BJP is watching Chirag’s performance in by-elections, organizational work, and public support to judge how much influence he can wield.

• Prepares Alternatives:
  To avoid over-dependence on Chirag, BJP continues to cultivate other Dalit leaders and partners to keep alliance options open.

The Road Ahead

Chirag Paswan’s ambitions are clear, but the path to becoming the NDA fulcrum in Bihar is fraught with challenges. The BJP’s cautious stance reflects the complexities of Bihar politics, where alliances are fragile and caste dynamics unpredictable.

For Chirag, success depends on expanding his political base, demonstrating electoral strength, and managing alliance relationships tactfully. For the BJP, accommodating Chirag means balancing power without destabilizing the existing alliance or alienating other partners.

In the coming years, Bihar’s political narrative may well be shaped by how these dynamics unfold. Will Chirag Paswan rise to become the NDA’s linchpin in the state, or will the BJP’s caution limit his ambitions? The answer will significantly influence Bihar’s political future and, by extension, the NDA’s strategy in eastern India.